Can Jenrick Outflank Farage?

As I write this, the Reform UK conference is in full swing, and the crowd are lapping up Nigel’s jokes as usual (he opened by hilariously trolling Keir Starmer about his free glasses). But it has been a strange week for Farage.

He was interviewed for GB News America by a previous guest of mine, journalist Steven Edginton. Steven is one of the few proper journalists working today, but crucially he is also virtually the only person who will challenge people like Farage from the right.

With the possible exception of the mild pickle he got into over Putin and Ukraine, Farage can bat away mainstream leftie journalists all day long. After all, how many more ways are there to say ‘But aren’t you a big evil racist, Mr Farage?’

However, the tables were turned when Edginton, in his typically direct style, asked: “Do you think that immigration represents a major threat to Britain from a demographic perspective? So, in the last twenty years, the white British population has declined from 87% to 74%. Is that a concern of yours?”

Farage replied simply “No”, pivoting to the “population explosion”, and his favourite stat that we need to build a new home every two minutes just to keep up with legal migration.

When Steven pressed the point, as he is wont to do, Farage conceded “Look, I’m very concerned that we have whole areas of our towns and cities that are unrecognisable as being English. But they’re not unrecognisable as being English because of skin colour, they’re unrecognisable because of culture”.

Of course, since English people happen to be white, this is a meaningless distinction, made purely for purposes of political correctness.

Still, this alone was nothing out of the ordinary. Farage became more agitated, however, when asked whether he supports mass deportations, which he called “A political impossibility”, adding “I’m not going to get dragged down the route of mass deportations or anything like that. I think it’s pretty clear there are a lot of people that have come who should not be given leave to remain…it’s a heck of a job”.

Here, within the space of two sentences, Farage manages to say that he doesn’t want to talk about mass deportations, then concedes that they need to happen, and ends by implying it’s impossible to do anyway.

When pushed further, Farage impatiently declares “If I say I support mass deportations, that’s all anybody will talk about for the next twenty years, so it’s pointless even going there”.

So not only can Farage not answer the question, but in a strange meta twist simultaneously admits that he can’t answer it, adding once again that it is “a political impossibility”. Though of course that itself is a kind of answer.

It reminds me of Norm Macdonald’s bit about being a “deeply closeted homosexual”. “So you’re gay?”, his interlocutor would invariably reply, to which Norm would say “Hey, easy buddy!” Or “Why would I admit that? I’m deeply closeted”, etc.

Farage is essentially saying we all know mass deportation is needed, but I don’t have the political capital to do anything about it, or even mention it…except to mention that I can’t mention it…and anyway it won’t work.

In a sense Farage is right, of course. If he said we need mass deportations that would indeed be the headline for the next century. One could even argue from a strategic perspective that Steven shouldn’t push such a point. But, as we also saw from his Liz Truss interview, he has the journalistic integrity to ask the difficult questions even if it makes figures on the right look bad.

Edginton also brings up Enoch Powell, who is perhaps a key comparison here. Farage knew him personally and respected him, so it is somewhat surprising to hear him now describe Powell as “intellectually an extraordinary man”, but “maybe not a very good politician…maybe not a very good politician at all”.

He then elaborates on how Powell blew his chance to become Tory leader because he was “in a hurry” and “made a speech that was unwise, and it lived with him for the rest of his career”.

This is probably as close as we’ll get to Farage point-blank admitting his strategy, which is now oddly similar to the ‘Ming vase’ approach Starmer employed prior to the recent general election.

While Starmer just had to wait for the Tories to complete their self-destruction and simply avoid dropping the metaphorical vase, Farage now appears to be attempting something similar with Labour. Don’t say anything controversial, wait until Labour’s already mounting problems bury them, then swoop in.

Thus Farage, being a wilier politician than Powell, avoids the latter’s mistake, even if it involves espousing some nonsensical positions along the way.

There are a few problems with this.

One is that it relies on voters finding value in this watered-down proposition from Farage, where demographics aren’t a problem and people can’t be deported. In that light it’s not totally clear what the offer is, other than the usual free market stuff, throwing out the green rubbish, and generally being not Labour or the Tories. And while that may be better than nothing, it feels more like another variation on managed decline. Or, perhaps more accurately at this point, managed collapse.

It might be that this is just Nige in campaigning mode, and we will see a tougher Farage if he manages to get into office. But that would be a gamble for the voter, and there is no particular reason to assume this will be the case.

Farage may also have a more pressing problem with this approach. Namely that Robert Jenrick might suddenly outflank him from the right. This would have sounded absurd until very recently. Jenrick was a Sunak bro, and Farage was the rebel outsider. Now suddenly Farage is trying to consolidate his gains and Jenrick, going all out to become leader of the Conservative Party, is actually, believe it or not, saying conservative things.

His article in yesterday’s Mail boldly tackled the forbidden concept of ‘English identity’, presenting it as a real and positive thing. Jenrick states:

Unfashionable as it may be, I am deeply proud to be both English and British. My roots are in provincial England but I have an equally strong sense of belonging to the UK.

But there's a key difference. Whereas all of the most high-status people in Scotland and Wales are proud to be Scottish and Welsh, most of the English political and media elite are far from proud to be English.

A fairly obvious point, but one you don’t hear too often in mainstream politics.

Jenrick later adds: “the combination of unprecedented migration, the dismantling of our national culture, non-integrating multiculturalism and the denigration of our identity has presented huge problems.”

Whether this is actually any different from what Farage is saying is hard to tell. Certainly any awkward question of race is similarly elided. Perhaps the difference is simply one of trajectory. While Farage has been on the defensive lately, refusing to go beyond his strict parameters, Jenrick is taking a bold step outside of the Tory Overton window, even if the end point is ultimately the same as Reform, or actually still somewhere more moderate.

Clearly we would be fools to take anything the Tories say at face value, and what Jenrick’s sudden passion for 'English identity’ will actually amount to is unclear (perhaps a bank holiday on St George’s Day?). But it does mean Farage can no longer just coast on being the most right wing amongst an incredibly far left set of parties.

The classical liberal types in the Tory world are still backing Kemi Badenoch. They like her sound anti-woke stances, her intelligence (which unfortunately doesn’t seem to extend to the arts, but does display the rigour of the engineer), and frankly the fact that her background makes accusations of racism sound absurd.

I personally believe we are beyond all of that now. Accusations of racism no longer stick, and in this moment where immigration is the number one concern across Britain and Europe, the fact that Badenoch, despite being born in Britain, did not come back until she was 16 years old is, if anything, a mild hindrance in discussing the issue.

Whereas an Englishman who has grown up here, who is prepared to say being English is a good thing (imagine!), and who has a serious plan to tackle immigration appears the stronger candidate.

That has been my view since the start of the leadership race, but then I perhaps occupy a different voter demographic to the Kemi Krew (I just made this term up but I like it). I am not a Tory voter and voted Reform last time. The ideal from the perspective of actually getting some of the necessary things done would probably be Farage as charismatic leader, fronting whichever party is most likely to win, with serious people like Jenrick behind him working on policy details.

Given that that is obviously unlikely, and the Tory vs Reform battle is very much on, Farage may need to up his game on some of the tough questions to stave off the Jenrick threat.